Climate change projections from CMIP6 outputs were analyzed for all available regionally downscaled models which had the daily parameters of temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric moisture. In addition, because this mining complex extended from the mountain to the coast in southern Peru, evaporation, wind speed, and sea level projections were analyzed. Finally, comparisons were made against previous climate change assessments completed by AWA which utilized CMIP5 outputs.
The outputs were analyzed following three methods, trend analysis; frequency analysis; and ratio comparisons. The results of these analyses produced a range of potential future outcomes for any period through 2100. This was evaluated from a median, mean, 10th, and 90th percentile as well as other relevant statistical and uncertainty processes. This information was consolidated and compared to produce a specific recommendation of the most likely outcomes and actionable information.
The concurrent site-specific PMP and annual exceedance probability analyses we had completed provided valuable context of the current and historical patterns, as well as the inherent uncertainty already included on the data and projections. This allowed for specific recommendations with appropriate context and quantification of uncertainty.
All outputs were presented as part of a detailed presentation involving all study participants to explain the methods, projections, and recommendations. The results were provided in a detailed set of documentation.
