Objectives
The primary objectives were to:
1. Review the PMP estimates and precipitation frequency analyses used in hydrologic design.
2. Assess climate change projections from CMIP6 models and their implications for PMP and IDF values.
3. Evaluate hydrologic modeling assumptions, particularly for the Tailings Storage Facility (TSF).
4. Provide recommendations for improved design standards and adaptive risk management under future climate conditions.
Methodological Approach
AWA employed a combination of observational station data, gridded satellite datasets (MERRA-2), and downscaled CMIP6 climate model projections to develop long-term precipitation and temperature records. Statistical analyses included L-moment frequency analysis, Hershfield PMP estimation, and Mann-Kendall trend testing. These were integrated into a comprehensive hydrologic and climate framework to assess the potential changes in extreme precipitation and inflow volumes under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios.
Conceptual Summary
The following conceptual diagram illustrates the integrated workflow for this assessment, showing the relationship between observational data, climate modeling, statistical analysis, and hydrologic design outcomes. It emphasizes the linkage between PMP estimation, AEP derivation, climate projection analysis, and flood modeling—ensuring a unified approach to resilient mine infrastructure planning.
Figure 1. Conceptual workflow connecting PMP, AEP, climate change, and hydrologic modeling.
